Policy Briefing Series: From Hormuz to Harvest: Navigating the Fertilizer and Food Security Crises

Date: Tuesday, June 9, 2026
Speakers: Dr. Amit Roy, Chair, Sasakawa Africa Association; and Mr. Corey Rosenbusch, President and CEO, The Fertilizer Institute

On June 9, 2026, Sasakawa USA hosted a Policy Briefing Series event titled “From Hormuz to Harvest: Navigating the Fertilizer and Food Security Crises,” featuring Dr. Amit Roy, chair of Sasakawa Africa Association, and Mr. Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, in a discussion moderated by Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, chairman and president of Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA.

While the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to military activity has drawn significant attention for its impacts on global shipping and energy markets, this event focused on a pair of less-discussed externalities imposed by the closure: fertilizer shocks and food insecurity. While about 25% of the world’s seaborne oil trade goes through the Hormuz, 30% of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade, 45% of the world’s seaborne sulfur trade and 46% of the world’s urea (a nitrogen fertilizer) trade go through the Strait. Consequently, while prices of all commodities coming out of the strait have risen, those of fertilizers have risen more sharply than any other affected commodity.  The impact on the global fertilizer supply and price could have devastating effects on the livelihoods of billions of people.

Dr. Roy started off the discussion by providing an overview of the global fertilizer shortage and its implications for food security in different regions. He emphasized three converging crises that threaten the production of global staples such as rice, wheat, maize, coffee, cattle, and sugar cane: (1) an existing fertilizer shortage due to tariffs and sanctions on Russia and Belarus, (2)  the Iran War which has shuttered fertilizer plants, raised input costs, and limited the supply of LNG necessary for fertilizer production, and (3) the potentially supercharged 2026-2027 El Niño.[1] Without adequate fertilizer supplies, global agricultural productivity will nosedive, leaving  over 2 billion people at severe risk of food insecurity. While these crises impact food systems in all regions, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia,  are the regions most exposed to fertilizer price shocks and therefore the most vulnerable. Given that fertilizer cannot be stockpiled because of its physical and chemical properties, it is critical to ensure a regular supply which can be equitably distributed as soon as possible. Otherwise, the current crisis will continue to stress and erode food systems, particularly in the most vulnerable regions.

Next, Mr. Rosenbusch addressed the current state of the fertilizer industry within the United States. With just under 100 fertilizer producers domestically, the U.S. fertilizer supply is a mix of national and foreign sources. While Mr. Rosenbusch predicts that technology will help this sector develop further moving forward, the U.S. currently competes for these commodities in the global marketplace against countries (such as India and China) where state-led operations significantly influence both the production of raw components and their costs. As a result, the United States is not insulated from the effect of geopolitics on either front. In addition, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration further disrupted the U.S. fertilizer market by raising prices on imports of key fertilizer ingredients, though the addition of phosphates and potash to the Final List of Critical Minerals in 2025 will help said materials enter the U.S. market.  At the end of his discussion, Mr. Rosenbusch highlighted how the recent Japan-U.S. trade agreement can potentially mitigate this issue domestically. In 2025, Japan pledged to invest $550 billion in U.S. industries, with some of the money possibly going towards fertilizer processing plants. However, this is an ongoing dialogue and requires approval from both the U.S. and Japanese governments.

In the Q&A session, moderated by Dr. Satohiro Akimoto, chairman and president of Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA, members of the audience inquired about immediate measures to bolster domestic production of fertilizer, the possibility of  wealth disparities between countries leading to unequal access to fertilizer, and what role Congress can play to address some of these long term issues, amongst other questions. The speakers reminded the audience that there are no easy solutions. For example, expanding domestic nitrogen production is possible, but it would still require at least five years and billions of dollars to get new plants up and running. Similarly, re-opening the Strait of Hormuz would not lead to an immediate rebound in LNG and fertilizer material production and shipping. Sasakawa USA is grateful to the speakers, Dr. Amit Roy and Mr. Corey Rosenbusch, for sharing their insights on this timely and important issue.

Photo (left to right): Mr. Corey Rosenbusch, Dr. Amit Roy, and Dr. Satohiro Akimoto.

[1] A natural Pacific weather pattern that pushes up global temperatures