This blog features a look at news, events, commentary and media related to Sasakawa USA and the U.S.-Japan relationship.
The Art of the Balance: Japan, China and the United States
The Art of the Balance: Japan, China and the United States
It’s no easy thing to balance a distant ally with a worrisome close neighbor.
By Catherine Putz, The Diplomat
There’s a delicate balance to relations between Japan and China. Economic realities are weighed against security concerns; a desire for maintaining the status quo balanced against long-term worries that China is a future threat and the United States a potentially unreliable ally.
When looking out from Tokyo, the strategic threats and security concerns that rest on the horizon range from the immediate and tangible — North Korea, which in 2017 sent two ballistic missiles flying over Hokkaido into the Pacific — to the inconvenient legacies of an unsigned peace treaty with Russia — an ongoing territorial dispute blocks the path to a peace treaty.
Perennial debates about the sustainability of the American commitment to its Asian allies, exacerbated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s capricious diplomatic style and repeated criticisms of U.S. allies not paying a fair share of defense costs — Japan and South Korea, specifically — only serve to emphasize for Japan the importance of maintaining balance in its regional relations.
But pulling Japanese attention, always, is China.
“Face to face, we are smiling; but under the table… we are kicking each other,” Keitaro Ohno, at the time the parliamentary vice minister of defense for Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, told a group of U.S. journalists in December, summarizing the reality of Japan’s balancing of economic interdependence and security concerns with regard to China.
“China is — and will be — an indispensable economic partner for Japan,” Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in an email to The Diplomat. “Economic interdependence has not gone away; if anything, it has become more important to Tokyo to maintain it.”
China was Japan’s second largest export partner, after the United States, from 2011 up until the end of the 2017 fiscal year in March 2018. According to the Japanese Ministry of Finance in April 2018, Japan’s exports to China soared to $141 billion in FY2017, a 18.3 percent increase over FY2016. Meanwhile, exports to the United States continued to grow, but at a slower pace of 7.5 percent over the previous fiscal year, coming to just over $140 billion.
The news in FY2018 to date, however, hasn’t been good for Japan. For example, in September 2018 Japanese exports fell 1.2 percent over the previous year — the first tumble in export stats since November 2016. As of the end of November 2018, Japanese exports had notched a measly 0.1 percent year-on-year increase.
Trump’s occasional harping on the imbalance in Japan-U.S. trade and threats of tariffs on Japanese-made automobiles have had a chilling effect in part because trade-related threats from the White House have been pursued in ways other comments from Trump have not. From Trump’s announcement, three days after taking office, of U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, to the pursuit of a trade war against China, trade issues are key for the American president.
After two years of dodging bilateral trade talks with the United States, Japan finally agreed in September 2018 to take the Trump administration up on its preferred vehicle for trade relations.
The slowing of the Chinese economy is also of deep concern for Japan.
Although officially announced statistics posit a general slowing of growth to 6.5 percent as of the third quarter of 2018, unofficial accounts paint a much darker outlook. At least one Chinese economist has suggested that the real growth rate in China is zero. The implications of a Chinese decline, let alone a collapse are frightening.
In December, Dr. Akio Takahara, a professor of contemporary Chinese politics at the University of Tokyo, told a group of U.S. journalists that “The [global] interdependence with China has grown to such a level that if China collapses then we will all suffer very, very much,” Takahara said that Japan faces a dilemma, arguably so do China’s other neighbors and the United States.
While Japan doesn’t want to see China become more aggressive, “If China grows, it will grow its military might and do things [with it].” But, he went on, “does that mean we should crush China? I don’t really think so. I think we have to learn how to manage the difficult parts and maintain peace.”
One difficulty is the burden of history. While the Japan of today is a democracy; the Japan that haunt’s China’s (and Korea’s) not-so-distant pasts was a tyrant. In 1910, Japan annexed the Korean Peninsula after helping wrest it from China’s sphere of influence 15 years before. In 1931, Japan invaded Manchuria and by 1937 China and Japan were at war, again. In 1941, with Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor, the ongoing conflict in East Asia — in which the United States and Soviet Union had been aiding the Chinese against the Japanese — merged with World War II. The period had no shortage of brutal acts. Across East Asia, historical issues continue to complicate Japan’s contemporary relations whether it’s the comfort women issue when dealing with South Korea, or the ghosts of the Nanjing Massacre haunting relations with China.
Another difficulty is the unavoidable tension between democracy and autocracy. In contemporary terms, democracies like Japan and the United States are concerned that autocracies like China won’t follow a “rules-based order” or are actively seeking to upend that order. In that vein, democracies see their efforts to build communities of cooperation as necessary to sustaining global stability and meeting myriad international challenges; autocracies, however, view such coalitions with deep suspicion, their central emphasis on democracy a direct challenge.
In comments to a group of U.S. journalists in December, Keitaro Ohno, now the LDP’s acting director of the foreign policy division and deputy chief secretary of the security research committee, characterized Beijing’s 2018 friendliness toward Japan as in part a response to Chinese shock over the aggressiveness of the Trump administration’s pursuit of a trade war.
The Chinese were, he suggested, “shocked and surprised by Trump’s actions” and were subsequently ”very suddenly friendly to us.”
As the trade war accelerated from a threat to reality, with tariffs levied first on foreign-produced solar panels and washing machines, then steel and aluminum, then progressing to directly targeting Chinese goods, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pursued a course of diplomatic engagement with China’s Xi Jinping (while also maintaining a regular schedule to meetings with Trump).
Abe, who rose (back) to power in 2012, tried early on to engender a normalization of relations with China. But as noted in a commentary published by the Japan Times last month by former editor of the Asahi Shimbun, Yoichi Funabashi, meetings following Abe and Xi’s first formal talks on the sidelines of the November 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing (Reuters referred to their handshake there as “awkward”), were brief and according to Chinese media, initiated by the Japanese.
“This time, however, the Chinese took the initiative,” Funabashi wrote “I was told by sources in the know that at a high-level foreign policy meeting in June, government and Communist Party members decided to respond to the dangers posed by the Trump administration by improving relations with China’s neighbors, particularly Japan and India.”
In September, Abe and Xi met on the sidelines of Russia’s Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok and in October Abe traveled to Beijing, billed as the first Japanese prime minister to do so since 2011. This year’s G-20 Summit is scheduled for late June in Osaka. If Xi attends, as diplomatic sources suggest he might, he’d be the first Chinese leader to visit Japan since Hu Jintao in 2008.
“Japanese economic growth now depends on its ties to China. But the strategic tensions are structural, and are not likely to dissipate,” Smith noted.
Ohno, as noted above, commented on China’s relatively friendly attitude toward Japan over the course of 2018. But, he continued in the next breath, “when it comes to the security environment, [Chinese] activity in the South China Sea and the East China Sea are still going on and not changed.
“Face to face, we are smiling; but under the table… we are kicking each other,” he summarized.
The kicking under the table is typified by incursions of Chinese vessels and aircraft into what the Japanese claim as sovereign territory. The territorial dispute between Japan and China regarding the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and the extent of each country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the East China Sea is a closely watched flashpoint between the two.
While in fiscal year 2017, the number of intercepts of People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) aircraft approaching Japanese airspace decreased by 23 percent over the previous fiscal year, 2018 saw an uptick. As Franz-Stefan Gady reported last month the number of intercepts of Chinese military aircraft “increased by approximately 20 percent in the first six months of the current fiscal year” (that is, from April to September 2018).
That said, there’s a rehearsed nature to Chinese incursions and the Japanese response; a careful dance that sets out each side’s claims but at the same time attempts to avoid sudden escalation. In this vein last year, the two sides agreed to set up a security hotline to help defuse any possible maritime confrontations after a decade of negotiations.
“If Beijing continues along its current path, Japan’s future could be increasingly shaped by Chinese decisions. Trying as much as possible to shape those decisions is a priority for Japan, and will be from here on out,” Smith commented.
“Tokyo cannot do it alone; it must seek the help of others who have a similar worry about China’s future trajectory,” Smith said. Japan, she went on, is well placed to help organize regional cooperation. “Whether in trade, development financing, maritime security or mitigating environmental degradation, most of Asia’s future problems demand cooperation among the countries of the region.”
In meeting after meeting with Japanese policymakers, academics, and commentators questions about how the Japanese view Donald Trump and his presidency were lofted by U.S. journalists. More often than not, the questions were diplomatically avoided or answered gently. For Japan, the U.S. alliance is critical — more so given China’s rise — and that fact persists no matter who sits in the White House.
“On the one hand, U.S.-Japan ties have deeper roots to keep our alliance steady and one president (or prime minister for that matter) cannot up end it so easily,” Smith replied when asked how Trump’s transactional style had impacted Japanese strategic considerations. “But the question for Tokyo, I imagine, is whether Trump represents a deeper impulse of the American people.”
The debate about the sustainability of the American commitment to its Asian allies is as old as those alliances, but the Trump presidency has brought new urgency to the conversation. If Washington puts “American First,” where do its alliance commitments figure? For those considering Japan’s strategic outlook, the core concern is not Trump’s bombastic style or even pressure on trade relations, but that he is far from a temporary phenomena.
“Are Americans tired of their global leadership role? Do they no longer want to expend their resources — financial, military, soft power — on shaping a world or a regional order? If this is what the Trump presidency represents, then it does suggest Japan’s postwar formula of dependence on the U.S. for strategic ballast may need rethinking,” Smith said, echoing comments made by several interlocutors in Japan.
True Stories from Japan: A Tale of Two Sister Cities
Kevin Yuan currently works as a Coordinator for International Relations in Taki Town, Mie Prefecture, Japan. He graduated from Georgetown University in May 2018 with a double major in Economics and Japanese, and served as a Communications and Education Intern for Sasakawa USA from January-May 2018. His past experiences in U.S.-Japan relations include participating in the U.S. High School Diplomats program, the National Cherry Blossom Festival’s Goodwill Ambassador Program, the Waseda University Global Leadership Fellows Program, and the U.S. Department of State’s Critical Language Scholarship Program.
During my Senior Convocation a mere two days before graduating college, I received an email that kept me up that night. I had accepted a position as a Coordinator for International Relations through the JET Program, and I had been awaiting notice of where in Japan I would spend, at the very least, the next year of my life. The moment the email subject with the words “JET” and “Placement” popped up as a notification on my phone, I tried anxiously to access the message, but was frustrated by the slow 3G speeds within the enclosed gymnasium. Finally, the email loaded and read: Taki-cho, Mie-ken, my placement for JET. Relying on my roommate’s phone, I looked up the location and images of the town. I scrolled through pictures of the typical Japanese countryside, causing new questions to enter my head. Will I feel fulfilled there? Will I really be able to make use of my skills?With these questions in mind, I began to learn more about my position’s specific tasks over the following months. One of them stuck out to me in particular—I’d be participating in a sister cities delegation made up of 20 middle school students and five town chaperones to Camas, Washington, in October, less than two months after my arrival in Taki.
The relationship between Taki, Mie, and Camas, Washington, originated from an industrial link. In 1995, the Sharp Corporation, which operated facilities in both Taki and Camas, sought and succeeded in establishing a connection between the cities. From then on, the sister city relationship blossomed and has continued for longer than I’ve been alive. The 2018 trip marked the 15th delegation of middle school students, and the 21st delegation overall from Taki to Camas, on top of more than a dozen past delegations from Camas to Taki. Although Sharp no longer operates in Camas, the bonds that have been forged thanks to the initial industrial connection have continued to strengthen over the years. During a special 20th anniversary of the sister city relationship in 2015, a delegation from Camas visited Taki, and the mayors of both cities planted a tree outside the town library that continues to grow as a symbol of friendship.
Joining the sister cities trip excited me for two reasons. First, during my time as an intern at Sasakawa USA, I attended a fascinating talk on the topic of U.S.-Japan sister city relations given by Grace Ruch Clegg (whose report on sister cities can be accessed here), and I felt eager to contribute to an international municipal-level exchange. Second, my own interest in U.S.-Japan relations was spurred by an international exchange I participated in when I was still a student. The 2013 U.S. High School Diplomats program allowed me to travel to Japan for the first time and meet Japanese high school students, and motivated me to pursue further studies and opportunities in U.S.-Japan relations. Now, the chance to help organizean international exchange made me excited to see how the trip would impact the students of Taki, many of whom had no prior overseas experience.
With the long history of the sister city relationship in mind, I was inspired to work to further strengthen the ties of friendship between the cities. After coordinating schedules with the Camas Sister City Organization and running language and culture workshops to prepare students for the exchange, I felt a mix of confidence, excitement, and anxiousness as the date of departure drew near. Following a relatively comfortable flight, I stepped out of the airport and spent a few minutes enjoying the brisk autumn Pacific Northwest weather, welcoming the drastic change from the hot and humid summer in Japan. Once we arrived in Camas, the students met and left with their host families. They seemed a bit hesitant and reserved at first, which was a feeling I could empathize with as I had previously lived with two different host families. My host family on this particular exchange took me and a few other chaperones to visit an outdoor farmer’s market before heading to a restaurant to have a large, delicious dish of nachos.
The next few days were exhausting but truly fulfilling, packed with visits to local schools, the city hall, and nearby attractions. I juggled duties of interpreting between Japanese and English, coordinating logistics between both sides as the point of contact for the delegation, and representing Taki, all while enjoying a new side of the United States I hadn’t experienced much of before. Although some parts of the trip were stressful for me (such as a sudden request to interpret a park ranger’s explanation about the geology of the Columbia River into Japanese), I felt that the trip was an overall success, serving as a valuable experience both for the students as a chance to engage with and form friendships with American students, and for me as a professional opportunity to use my skills and contribute to the long-standing sister city relationship.
I saw reflections of my past self in the students throughout the trip, many of whom seemed to be overwhelmed, yet excited and curious to learn as much as they could in a place far from home. I hope the exchange sparked something in them the same way my student exchanges did for me. By the end of the visit, they were hugging and saying farewell to their host families as if they’d known each other for years. Although the exchange itself lasted less than a week, I have faith that the bonds they formed will persist for much longer; some students appeared overjoyed to reunite with Camas residents whom they hosted in Japan over a year prior.
As my attention turns to preparing for welcoming a delegation from Camas to Taki in June, I’m constantly reminded of the significance of person-to-person exchanges for creating a more interconnected world. The Camas-Taki sister city relationship is just one of many across the globe, but I am grateful to be able to contribute to its success and see its positive impact on individuals in both cities.
About True Stories from Japan
True Stories from Japan is an occasional blog on the Sasakawa USA website that features reflective essays about travels to and from Japan. Click here for details on how to submit an article for consideration.
‘Why Japan Will Spend Billions on F-35s’ published in the National Journal
Mackenzie Weinger, Policy Editor for the National Journal, was one of eight rising U.S. journalists covering U.S. national security and defense issues who participated in a week-long study trip to Japan in December 2018 as part of the Sasakawa USA Emerging Experts Delegation (SEED) program. Weinger published “Why Japan Will Spend Billions on F-35s” in the National Journal on December 19, 2018.
Read the full text of her National Journal article below or download a PDF version.
Why Japan Will Spend Billions on F-35s
By Mackenzie Weinger, National Journal
TOKYO—Japan plans to shell out billions of dollars to purchase F-35 fighter jets in an effort to counter both regional security concerns and massive pressure from President Trump to drop more cash on U.S. military equipment.
“In total, we’re buying 147 F-35s from your country,” Keitaro Ohno, the parliamentary vice minister of defense for Japan’s ruling party, told National Journal and other U.S. publications last week in Tokyo.
Trump has long sought to bolster the U.S. arms industry, often acting as a salesman for domestic weapons manufacturers in meetings and public appearances with foreign leaders. Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, meanwhile, not only wants to improve his country’s defense capabilities with this F-35 buy, but likely hopes it will serve as proof of Tokyo’s increased commitment to its own defense and as leverage with a president hyper-focused on Japan’s trade surplus with the U.S.
Tokyo this week officially announced plans to buy 63 F-35As and 42 F-35Bs, the pricier short-takeoff-vertical-landing variant, to replace about 100 aging fighter jets. That’s worth an estimated $10 billion to U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin, although the final contract value could differ.
Japan already had 42 F-35As on order. With this new commitment, the country will become the largest foreign buyer of the U.S.-made fighter jet.
Tokyo’s new defense posture is tied largely to China’s military buildup, Japanese officials told National Journal, although threats posed by North Korea and Russia also factor in. “This trigger is—to be straight out—China, the expansion of China,” Ohno said.
But Trump is likely another trigger for Tokyo. The president has repeatedly and publicly pushed for Japan to buy military equipment from American manufacturers and has often criticized the country over its trade surplus with the U.S.
In a September news conference following meetings at the United Nations, the president said he’d “just asked Japan” about defense spending. “I said, ‘We’re defending you. You’re a very wealthy country. You’re sending us millions of cars. You’re making a fortune. We have a tremendous trade deficit with you. And we’re defending you and we’re subsidizing your military with a massive amount of money,’” Trump said.
Or, as the president put it at a November 2017 news conference in Tokyo, “the Prime Minister of Japan is going to be purchasing massive amounts of military equipment, as he should. And we make the best military equipment, by far. He’ll be purchasing it from the United States. … It’s a lot of jobs for us and a lot of safety for Japan.”
Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that although there is a clear need to replace an aging fleet, this week’s announcement also reflects Japan’s approach to dealing with Trump.
“How many F-35s ordered has been affected by the Trump administration calling on Japan to do more, spend more,” Smith said. “He said, ‘Buy more modern weapons, create more American jobs,’ and Japan will be buying the F-35 off the shelf, from U.S. factories.”
Asked whether the F-35 purchase is more about pleasing Trump ahead of bilateral trade talks with Washington next year or countering China, Koji Murata, a professor of political science at Doshisha University in Kyoto, replied, “The answer is both.”
Tokyo’s plan to introduce F-35Bs and more F-35As makes tactical and strategic sense, U.S. and Japanese defense officials say. The U.S. is Japan’s only military ally, and the country’s postwar constitution heavily restricted its military capabilities.
“We are increasing our defense effort very significantly, but without the U.S., Japanese security policy cannot stand,” a senior defense official in the National Security Secretariat said in an interview in Tokyo last week.
Rear Adm. Karl Thomas, who commands the U.S. Navy’s largest battle force, said Japan’s acquisition of U.S. military equipment lends itself to greater integration between the two defense forces.
“That right there bakes in some interoperability that we may not have with some other navies of the world. They fly airplanes that are very similar to ours. … Their data links are the same as our data links, so we have a special relationship,” Thomas, commander of the Japan-based Combined Task Force 70 and Carrier Strike Group 5, told reporters last week on the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan.
The new decision to procure F-35Bs connects to both operational and geographical concerns, given that Japan is an island nation with few long runways. The aircraft will also be placed on Izumo-class destroyers that are set to be transformed into aircraft carriers under the government’s newly announced defense-policy guidelines.
As Capt. Katsuyoshi Motoyama—the commanding officer of the JS Izumo, the lead ship of the Izumo class—told U.S. reporters last week, the short length of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force’s largest ships means they can’t launch F-35As. But the refitted helicopter destroyers would be sufficient for the pricier F-35B variant, which is capable of vertical or short takeoffs and vertical landings, and does not require a catapult launcher.
This massive purchase is an effort to develop the country’s airpower capabilities and address the growing threat China poses to Japan, particularly remote island chains, Ohno said.
“When it comes to the security environment, their activity in the South China Sea and East China Sea is still going on and has not changed a lot,” he said. “Face to face, we are smiling, but under the table we are kicking each other.”
Japan’s decision to beef up its defense forces and buy American-made military equipment must also be seen in the context of the current U.S.-Japan relationship, Smith noted.
“I think it’s pretty clear that Abe and Trump both have an interest in better Japanese capabilities given the neighborhood Japan lives in. I think they’re both on the same page on these weapons sales,” she said. “Will it affect [U.S. Trade Representative Robert] Lighthizer and others who are actually negotiating trade? I can’t say yes for sure, but it doesn’t hurt, obviously, that this has been one of the outcomes already negotiated and decided.”
Reporting in Japan was conducted during a Sasakawa USA-International Center for Journalists fellowship program.
Sasakawa USA appoints new President
Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA is pleased to announce the appointment of Dr. Satohiro Akimoto as our new president, effective January 1, 2019. Akimoto will work with Admiral Dennis Blair (ret.), Chairman of the Board, and Ambassador (ret.) James Zumwalt, Chief Executive Officer, to advance Sasakawa USA’s mission of strengthening U.S.-Japan relations through education, programs, and research.
Akimoto brings to Sasakawa USA extensive experience in the business and non-profit world. “In recognition of Satohiro Akimoto’s tremendous contributions as a Sasakawa USA Board member and as a frequent participant in our Washington programs, we decided to bring him on board full time in order to strengthen our ties with businesses and counterpart organizations and provide strategic advice on strengthening our mission,” Blair said.
Akimoto is the founder of Washington Insights LLC, a geopolitical risk analysis and consulting firm which he established in Washington, D.C. in May 2016. He was a senior vice president for the Mitsubishi Corporation with expertise in geopolitical, macro-economic, and business strategy. Akimoto received a Ph.D. in Sociology and an MA in East Asian Studies from Harvard University and a BA in law from Keio University.
“Sasakawa USA would like to thank former President Junko Chano for her many years of valuable service to the organization,” said Admiral Blair. “We look forward to continuing to work with her closely in her role as the Executive Director of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in Japan and as a member of the Sasakawa USA Board of Directors.”
Sasakawa USA and HyperQube sponsored a cybersecurity capture-the-flag contest
On November 29, Bud Roth, Non-Resident Fellow for Cybersecurity at Sasakawa USA, and Craig Stevenson, CEO of HyperQube, announced the winners of the Capture-the-Flag contest sponsored by Sasakawa USA for students of schools affiliated with Keio University’s International Cyber Security Center of Excellence. On stage at INCS-CoE’s Seventh Biannual Cyber Security Conference, Roth and Stevenson ran through the competition and how its participants fared.
Seventy-eight students from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), George Mason University, Georgia Tech, University of Cambridge, University of Oxford, Tokyo University, Keio University, and more, participated in the elimination phase. They were given approximately three weeks to hack into four machines. Two participants broke into all four and eleven successfully exploited three machines.
The thirteen finalists were given five days to exploit seven machines in a segmented network environment. All thirteen compromised at least a few machines, but only two hacked into all seven and one hacked into six of the seven. Based on this outcome, Roth and Stevenson announced the following winners:
1. Emanuele Uliana, Royal Holloway, acquired seven flags
2. Claudio Rizzo, Royal Holloway, acquired seven flags
3. Atsushi Kanda, IISEC Japan, acquired six flags
Schools with most points
1. Royal Holloway, University of London, 28 players, 71 total points
2. University of Cambridge, 23 players, 43 total points
3. University of Tokyo, 12 players, 19 points
Schools with highest average points
1. IISEC Japan, 3 players, 4 points average
2. Royal Holloway, University of London, 28 players, 2.53 points average
3. Oxford, 6 players, 2.17 points average
In addition, three students were able to find vulnerabilities in the game platform itself and disclosed these to HyperQube, which graciously hosted the games. HyperQube awarded the following three students a $50 gift certificate and an Ethical Disclosure Award:
• Roberto from RH
• Mert from Turkey
• Alistair from Oxford
The event was a lot of fun and a learning experience for everyone, Roth said. At the event’s end, he noted, “The goal here was to attract talented students to cybersecurity and help them build an international network of future colleagues. Cyber crime is a cross-border problem and today we contributed in a small way towards a cross-border solution.”
INCS-CoE was established in November 2016 by Keio University and collaborating members from American, British, and other Japanese universities to address cyberthreats through international collaborations.